The turnover “mystery”

From the DTH:

UNC has quietly cleaned up its act in its last three games.

For the season, UNC is averaging 15.1 turnovers per game — 273rd in the NCAA. But in its last three games, one a loss in the ACC Tournament and the others two NIT wins, the Tar Heels are averaging 10.7 turnovers per game.

The only question is what UNC changed.

Here’s a quick and dirty answer: UNC didn’t change anything.

What it did is play William & Mary and Mississippi State, two teams that rank nearly dead last in Division I in terms of forcing turnovers. UNC’s lack of turnovers in those games says more about the opposition than it does about the Heels.

Admittedly, Georgia Tech is significantly better in the turnover department, ranking fifth in the ACC in takeaway percentage. Give the Heels credit for smart offense in that game — but on the other hand, it’s just one game. If Carolina can limit the turnovers against UAB, which is about on Georgia Tech’s level in terms of forcing turnovers, then yes, I’ll be impressed.

Also! For what it’s worth, the DTH overstates Carolina’s turnover problem.

I know, I know — that’s pretty hard to do. But by looking at turnovers per game instead of turnovers per possession (or, as the stat is usually put, turnovers per 100 possessions), the paper neglects the fact that Carolina plays faster than most teams. Simply put, UNC has more chances to turn it over.

Adjusted for tempo, UNC ranks 188th in turnovers. Bad, but not as bad as 273rd.

(Full disclosure: I was an editor at the DTH while in school and know a few of the students who currently work there.)

One thought on “The turnover “mystery”

  1. Pingback: Game wrap: UNC 60, UAB 55 « Heels Geek

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