In lieu of writing long game previews, a series of questions and answers about UNC’s forthcoming weekend of basketball.
Q: What’s the team’s mind-set headed into tonight’s game?
A: The reward for the Fight Club-type beating Carolina gave itself in the ACC tournament was a morose trip home and a tournament bracket that the Tar Heels are unlikely to survive without serious luck. How is the team facing down this monumental task? Depending on who you ask, the Tar Heels are either in high spirits … or completely haunted by their Duke loss, thus leading us to ponder how something can be a wave and a particle at the same time.
Q: Should we be scared about Long Island?
I need to start this answer by offering a disclaimer. I’m not the type of person you’d call … confident. About anything, ever.
But I think we should be concerned about Long Island. Not scared — it’s ridiculous to suggest that a 17-point favorite should be scared — but concerned. As you can see on their Pomeroy page, Long Island does a few things with aplomb. They shoot well. They get to the line at an exceptional rate. They rebound 38.6% of their misses. If Long Island starts tomorrow night hitting 3s, rebounding misses, and shooting free throws …
Of course, there’s a flip side to this argument. The point spread, for one, suggests a blowout. So does the reality of the tournament — #15 seeds have won four games, ever. As far as matchups go, Long Island isn’t good at keeping opponents off the glass, which means they don’t have a good chance of neutralizing the Tar Heels’ best offensive weapon. Also, Harrison Barnes is taller than their starting center. Carolina should dominate. But should doesn’t mean they will.
Q: More realistically — should we worry about Washington?
Yes. Like, hell yes.
First. Washington is underseeded. Look at their computer rankings — 17th in Pomeroy, 12th in Sagarin’s “predictive” rankings, 8th in the LRMC (one of the ratings that Nate Silver used to put together his bracket for the New York Times). Or, if you’re a wins-and-losses guy, consider that four of Washington’s losses this year came by a combined six points. Yes, in the end, they lost those games, but think about it: This team was four lucky bounces away — four, out of the thousands of shots taken over a season! — from being 27-6, the 14-4 Pac-10 regular-season champions, the Pac-10 tournament champions, and (probably) a top-3 seed.
Plus, this isn’t a good matchup for UNC on paper. I’d burn a small village to keep Kendall Marshall in Chapel Hill for four years, but do you want him guarding Isaiah Thomas? Especially with Carolina’s wings needing to stick to their own assignments (UW’s starting wings are 6’6 Terrence Ross and 6’6 Justin Holliday)?
I mean … check out this Gus-gasm.
That’s scary. So is the idea of playing a team with size, like all-conference forward Matthew Bryan-Amaning – an efficient scorer, rebounder & shot-blocker. Washington can also run with the Tar Heels (#16 tempo in the country) and put points on the board (#9 adjusted offensive efficiency). It’s weird: Carolina goes all Fundamentals of Defense on us this year, and then our likely second-round opponent is basically a poor man’s version of the Felton- or Lawson-era teams. (Or, perhaps more accurately, Washington is back to where it was when Nate Robinson was there: quick, athletic, fast, strong outside but inside-first, mildly indifferent defensively).
Also, I know you’re wondering: yes, they can play a zone.
The saving grace for Carolina in this game, if it happens, is (obviously) Charlotte. 27-1 records don’t just appear out of thin air. Still, though it was nice for the committee to give UNC a 2 seed and a game close to home, it was equally unkind to match us up against one of the tournament’s grossly underseeded teams. Temple, Texas A&M, and UCLA are all good teams that could play a good game and do their thing to the Tar Heels. But they’re actual 7 seeds. Washington is a 3 with a Groucho Marx mustache.
Q: What about Georgia?
Travis Leslie is one of a very limited number of people on this planet who can make DeMarcus Cousins look small:
His game isn’t just the hops, though. Leslie, along with Trey Thompkins, is a potential first-round pick.
The problem for Georgia is that Thompkins, a junior, has been less productive this year than in his sophomore season. This is thanks to a baffling regression from 3 (just 29.2% this year after pushing 40% his first two years) that might have something to do with nagging injuries. (It appears that Leslie was the better teammate this season, but Thompkins got the second-team All-SEC nod; good to know that Kyle Singler isn’t the only one getting legacy votes on all-conference teams.)
Also, once you get past the two pack-leader Bulldogs, there’s not much there; no one’s a particularly dominant rebounder or defender or scorer, and they don’t have much in the way of a point guard who can facilitate the offense.
Still, I don’t think we can just assuming that Carolina will play Washington on Sunday. First-round picks don’t grow on trees.
Q: Ultimately, what are the odds of Carolina coming out of this weekend?
Nate Silver says 66%. Ken Pomeroy says 52%.
Maybe it’s whatever small sliver of optimist is in me, maybe not, but I tend to err toward Silver. If this were a neutral site, I could get behind the idea that the Tar Heels have just a coin flip’s shot at coming out of the bracket — Washington is good, Georgia has strengths, and Carolina — while good — is far from a juggernaut.
But in Charlotte? With that crowd? Two-thirds seems about right.
Q: Did you see the story Bob Knight told about Michael Jordan?
Sure did. He’s the G.O.A.T. for a reason. Michael, I mean.
Q: Would you spend $170 on these shoes?
Without thinking twice.
Q: You’re just going to ignore the whole Kyrie Irving thing, aren’t you?
Q: Would you like to say a few words about our fallen friend, Nate Dogg?
I would. I’d like to thank you, Nate Dogg, for your contributions to the science of the Eastside Motel. Also, there was that one time my best friend drunk-dialed me while waiting for the metro, singing the entirety of “Regulate.”
In fact, let’s bow out in style:
