Survive. Advance. The rest is noise.
But a beautiful, joyful noise that gets us arguing. Read on:
This was obviously a weird game.
On the one hand, you have the Four Factors: Carolina shot better than Long Island (53 eFG% to 41.2%), rebounded better (54-39), got to the line at an insanely high rate, and was never seriously threatened in the second half despite some runs by a pesky underdog. Long Island wasn’t that good in spite of their pre-game smack talk, and Carolina dispatched them accordingly.
On the other, as Blue vs. Blue puts it, “fans are still biting their collective lip a bit because we like to think that a true champion, as evidenced by Duke’s performance early in the day, crushes the inferior competition from the start and never lets up.”
In the hours since the game ended, I’ve had some friendly discussion among friends on both sides of that argument. Instead of taking one side or the other here, I’m going to break down each talking point for the game, and then discuss them from the “sky is falling” perspective and the “chill out” perspective. HG reports. You decide!
Giving Up 87 Points
The case for not worrying: This is one of those times when you get a good idea of who understands the value of tempo-free stats and who doesn’t. If you look at the 87 points and say, “Wow, we got blitzted,” you’re the latter. Long Island’s 0.924 points per possession yesterday were, as Ken Pomeroy pointed out on Twitter, their second-lowest PPP 0f the season. Maybe Carolina didn’t play perfectly, but Long Island aren’t wallflowers, and UNC forced them into a poor performance.
The case for worrying: Did you see how many open shots Long Island missed, especially in the first half? Did you see how many layups they got because the Tar Heels didn’t get back on defense fast enough? And sure, LIU’s defensive numbers were the second worst of the season … but they should have been. They haven’t played anybody — their only two top-100 opponents in Pomeroy were Iona and Northwestern, and both of those teams held LIU to under 1 PPP, too.
Plus, defensive deficiencies are a mini-trend as of late. Clemson put up 1.13 PPP against Carolina in the ACC tournament. Duke, 1.08. Even the offensively inept FSU put up 1.04 during the game in Tallahassee.
The 19 Turnovers
The case for not worrying: Again, it’s a matter of tempo. Nineteen turnovers seems like a lot, but for a 94-possession game, it’s 19.1%, barely discernible from Carolina’s season-long number of 18.7%. No team is perfect; UNC can cut down on mistakes, but it seems ridiculous to get on the guys’ case when “the turnover problem” wasn’t even a real problem.
The case for worrying: It’s about decision-making. Who the hell does Z think he is, Kevin Love with those long — and intercepted — outlet passes? Harrison, too. It’s one thing if the defense is forcing you into coughing up the ball, another thing to hand it to them with the dinner check and a mint.
The 17.6% 3-Point Shooting
The case for not worrying: Sometimes, you shoot well. Sometimes, you don’t. It’s just the nature of the game. Nobody complained when UNC hit beaucoup threes against Miami or Clemson to get them back into the game — why complain now because Leslie McDonald (a 39% shooter) and Harrison Barnes (a 34% shooter) had off days when we didn’t really need them to make shots, anyway?
The case for worrying: It’s not so much about the misses as it is about the shot selection. Zeller and Henson got whatever they wanted inside. So, too, did Harrison (7-9 from two in the game). So why even take 17 three-pointers? And why take so many early in the shot clock — especially during the second half, when Long Island made their run after UNC got the lead to 21? If you need to chuck one up, chuck one up, but don’t do that until one of the big guys has been able to go to work.
The Final Score
The case for not worrying: It was harrowing at times, but a 15-point win in the NCAA tournament is a 15-point win. It’s not like UNC wildly underperformed expectations, either; Vegas had the line at -17.5, and UNC finished up 15. We are what you thought we were.
The case for worrying: UNC put up 1.08 PPP against a defense that Pomeroy ranks in the 200s. That’s just not good enough — the Pomeroy prediction expected the Tar Heels to put up 94 points in 79 possessions, or 1.19 PPP. That kind of offensive deficiency will kill the Tar Heels against a team that can play defense. So will all the mental mistakes. So will the inability to hit a three.
And that’s it for me. ‘Bout to enjoy this beautiful D.C. day. Do some cleanin’. Do some latte-sippin’. Livin’ the High Life. See y’all tomorrow.
What a great game. UNC is now dancing to Newark for the Sweet 16. For all of you die hard Tar Heel fans that are coming to the area for the games, there is so much going on. Newark is ready for all UNC fans, and you better believe that every bar will be packed with fans. Check out GoNewark.com for more information!