Previewing UNC’s Weekend: A Q&A

In lieu of writing long game previews, a series of questions and answers about UNC’s forthcoming weekend of basketball.

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Why the RPI Sucks, And Why It Could Mean Disaster for Carolina

In lieu of a North Carolina versus Duke preview — do you guys really need me to break it down? — some vital information about why this game is pivotal to our season.

Recently, Sporting News’ Mike DeCourcy — otherwise, a good college basketball reporter — has been taking to the Twittersphere and to the pages of his publisher’s website in defense of the RPI. And not just in defense of the RPI. He’s also railed against other systems, such as Ken Pomeroy’s.

The thing is, he’s wrong. Like, real wrong. Like, “can’t make a good argument so I set up straw men and knock them down like Shawn Kemp at the Bunny Ranch” wrong.

And Pomeroy has a great article in Slate explaining why. Go ahead, click it, skim through it, then come back and get prepared to be really, really pissed off.

Here’s why this matters for Carolina: In recent days, both Florida State and Clemson dropped below the “RPI top 50″ threshold. Other borderline top-50 opponents, Maryland and Virginia Tech, were already below it. So going into today’s game, UNC is 2-4 against the top 50 in the RPI.

That could spell disaster. At least one major bracket creator (“bracketologist” is not a word) already has us as a four seed, in part, no doubt, because of that less-than-illustrious record.

Except it’s not ACTUALLY a less-than-illustrious record — if you use any system other than “RPI Top 50 wins.”

  • UNC’s record against the top 50 in Pomeroy is 9-4 going into today’s game.
  • But let’s say you don’t want to use Pomeroy because you’re like DeCourcy and think margin of victory shouldn’t count in making up a ranking system. Well, we can use the Sagarin rankings, which don’t take into account strength of schedule (DeCourcy’s biggest pet peeve with Pomeroy). UNC’s record there? 9-4 against the top 50.
  • Carolina’s strength of schedule — compiled from the RPI itself! — is No. 15 in the country. (Compare that with San Diego State, which is competing with UNC for a 2 seed or a 3 seed. SDSU has a 7-2 record against the RPI Top 50, comprising three wins against UNLV, two against Colorado State, one against a Brandon Davies-less BYU, and one against No. 50 Saint Mary’s. But it has a No. 35 strength of schedule.)

Here’s the bottom line. If the committee decides to seed teams based on “how good are they,” I feel good about UNC getting a 2 or a 3 even if they lose to Duke today.

But if the committee decides to use a pointless, arbitrary system that’s been in use since Galaga came out? We could well be looking at a four seed, a dangerous first-round opponent (Belmont, the team Jerry Palm has us playing in the first round, is a nightmare scenario), and a completely unjustified Sweet 16 game against a one seed.

Don’t think today’s game matters? It does.

ACC Tournament: A Brief North Carolina v. Clemson Preview

No time this morning, so real quick. As we learned in the game at Littlejohn, Clemson is actually a good team — probably, if you put a gun to my head and made me blurt something out, the third best team in the conference.

I know, I know: This year, that gets you a slap on the ass and an 11 seed. But if the Heels are half as careless as they were yesterday, Clemson (second in the ACC in defensive turnover percentage) will make them pay — and, as against Miami, there are plenty of shooters on the floor for the opponent who will be happy to take those unguarded transition three-pointers. Also, unlike Miami, Clemson can D up, so we can’t count on ugly defensive lapses to let UNC back into the game if it falls behind.

The stat of choice, if you’re Carolina: Six of Clemson’s seven losses in conference were on the road. I’m not sure that means a whole lot, because the Tigers were competitive in all of them — their biggest margins of defeat were 10 at UNC and 11 at Duke — and could easily have picked up a few of those games. But if it does mean anything, the chances of the Coliseum rocking today (especially with a potential WW3 looming against Duke) are high.

The Heels are favored by five. That sounds about right. Expect a barn-burner.

ACC Tournament: North Carolina v. Miami

I know there were, allegedly, four “games” of “Basket Ball” yesterday. But as far as this nerd-in-a-basement is concerned, as far as Dr. James A. MF Naismith is concerned, and, apparently, as far as fans are concerned, the Cocktail Party begins today, in Greensboro.

Can’t be there this year, and despite the ignominy that took place when I attended last year (seriously, Paul Hewitt, get thee to a nunnery), I’m kinda bummed about that. Nothing like waking up on Friday, hitting the early games, cruising down Battleground to the “other” Stamey’s, and rushing back before evening tip. G-burrah. You’re missed. (And no, neither the city nor the Coliseum isn’t to blame for poor attendance. I mean, what’s the alternative, Charlotte? Have you been to Charlotte? The place is a bank with a few bars in the basement. As it was in the beginning, is now and ever shall be, Greensboro without end, amen.)

Anyway. Given that Carolina has never played well at an ACC Tournament game I’ve attended, it’s probably for the best.

A few thoughts on the tournament writ large.  Continue reading

Yo! Larry Drew Raps (And News & Notes)

Apparently not content to merely burn bridges, Larry Drew II has decided to concomitantly make an ass out of himself by spitting a UNC freestyle diss at his 21st birthday party. Video here. Transcript here.

Whatever. This post is really an excuse to post about the Twitter meme that blew up this morning in response to Drew’s better-or-worse-than-Shaq? rhymes: #LarryDrewLyrics. They appear to have begun with Friend of Heels Geek @Joey_Powell and spread from there. Continue reading

UNC Makes History With All-ACC Selections

Unfortunately, it’s the dubious type of history: Four Tar Heels made All-ACC, but none made the first team. Tyler Zeller, John Henson and Harrison Barnes were the leading vote-getters, while Kendall Marshall made the third team. It’s the first time that an outright ACC regular-season champion has failed to place a player on the first team.

ACC media: not winning.

But oh, it gets worse.

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John Henson Named Yahoo! Sports’ Defensive POY

John Henson was named Yahoo! Sports’ national defensive player of the year. Awesome honor.

Yet Henson is not even an honorable mention for Yahoo’s all-America teams (though Tyler Zeller picks up that honor).

I’ve gone on the record as saying that people might be overlooking Henson’s offensive troubles a bit. But how can you be the best defender in the country and not be one of its 30 best players? Preventing points from being scored is just as important as scoring them.

(EDIT: FoxSports.com, same thing now. This genuinely baffles me.)

Question Mark Guy