Watched the ’95 game on ESPN Classic with some buds, working ourselves into the Two Minutes Hate over Wojo and Collins? Check.

Laid out all my ’05 and ’09 national title T-shirts on the bed and then held them tight, one by one, like they were the Precious and I was Gollum? Check.

Took a look at this? Check.

Let’s do this.

Time: 9 p.m.
TV: ESPN
Vegas line: Duke -14.5
Pomeroy line: Duke -18

No, y’all, that’s not a misprint. Vegas really does expect Duke to win by 15 points. Pomeroy really does expect Duke to win by 18 points.

Which, in the end, is probably a healthy thing. Wins in the last two games have, at least in this blogger’s circle of friends, led to some “well, this should be interesting” talk. That’s true — it’s Carolina/Duke, fer godsake — but let’s not subscribe to the illusion that the Heels are suddenly rolling. The road win at Wake was nice, but Wake played miserably, as Wake has played for the better part of a few weeks now. The home win at Miami was, even for this Carolina team, a game that Heels should have won (and almost blew anyway).

You can’t call this game “a game that UNC should win.” Duke is appreciably better than Carolina in every facet of the game. Likewise, you sure as hell can’t expect Duke to play like garbage against its archrival, on Senior Night, trying to stop a four-game home losing streak at Hansbrough Indoor Stadium.

Just sayin’.

Last time out

Duke won the Battle of Inept Offense, 64′-54, in the Dome. Our team’s best player broke his wrist. Let us not speak of it further.

Stuff to watch

All-ACC teams, Geek Edition preview

I am almost certain that when we reveal our all-ACC teams (IT GOES DOWN MONDAY! TELL YOUR FRIENDS! GET HYPE!), one Brian Zoubek will grace the third team. Maybe the second.

This is strange. It is bizarre. We are entering a dimension of sound, a dimension of sight, a dimension of mind. Do you know how many Simpsons-referencing “they’re not saying ‘boo,’ they’re saying ‘Zouuuuuuuuuuu-BEK’” jokes I’ve made these last four years? Reasoning it out is simple, though, and it stems from the fact that rebounding is, while unglamorous, important. Offensive rebounding, in particular, is crucial. Every offensive rebound is a turnover, giving the offense a second chance despite its failure to score.

Guess what? Brian Zoubek, after being merely a decent rebounder for three years, has suddenly tapped into the power of his beard and become the best offensive rebounder in the country. He’s no slouch on the defensive glass, either, ranking 60th in the country in that metric (and second in the ACC, behind our own, gimpy Ed Davis). Based on tweets during the Duke/Maryland game, people are starting to come around to this thought, but Heels Geek is here to, regretfully, inform you that it has been this way all year long. Dude has been a beast on the glass since Day One. If he had even one offensive move, he’d be a legitimate NBA prospect.

(Allow me to take this time to exhale deeply and slowly.)

As the Official Tar Heel Channel points out in its own game preview, one of the big reasons Carolina lost to Duke in the first go-round was offensive rebounding. Duke is, behind Zoubek (and, to a lesser extent, the Plumlees and Lance Thomas), obviously going to pose a huge challenge there. UNC is OK at defensive rebounding — they’re third in the ACC in the percentage of offensive rebounds they give up to opponents — but the Heels have to step it up to have a chance at winning this game.

Turnovers

Not ours. Theirs.

Duke, as we discussed in our “sorry, Duke doesn’t get all the calls” post, is not forcing a huge number of turnovers this year. They rank 4th in the ACC in that metric. Still good, but hardly elite, at least partly by design. They do not pose any special risk to Carolina in that department, and at any rate, UNC would probably turn it over 20 times against East Chapel Hill.

What is worth pointing out, though, is just how good Duke is at taking care of the ball. The Devils turn it over on 16.2 percent of possessions, putting them in the top 10 in the country. Jon Scheyer — and this is something not being discussed nearly enough in his ACC POY candidacy — turns it over on just 12% of the possessions he uses, remarkable for a guy who’s basically the team’s lead guard.

Kyle Singler, by the way, checks in at 14%, Nolan Smith at 13%. Their guards and wings simply do not turn the ball over (though the bigs do). That — more than even the team’s dead-eye three-point shooting — is why Duke ranks so highly in all the computer metrics for offensive efficiency. Even in Duke’s losses, they haven’t coughed it up much; the highest such figure is a turnover on 21.8% of possessions at Georgetown. That is almost exactly the same at Carolina’s average turnover percentage in losses.

The conclusion is that you’re just not going to beat Duke by forcing them to turn the ball over. You make them lose by making them miss shots (or hoping they miss open ones) and keeping them off the offensive glass. It’s not just me saying that, either. Weak offensive rebounding and poor shooting, according to Pomeroy, have been the main factors in Duke’s five losses.

All in all …

I don’t have a nice way of putting this: There is a very good chance Carolina gets its ass whooped.

But then again, it’s Duke/Carolina. Anything can happen. I’ll be rooting right along with the rest of you for anything to happen.

Go to hell, Dook!