In lieu of writing long game previews, a series of questions and answers about UNC’s forthcoming weekend of basketball.
Previewing UNC’s Weekend: A Q&A
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Category Archives: Game previews
ACC Tournament: A Brief North Carolina v. Clemson Preview
No time this morning, so real quick. As we learned in the game at Littlejohn, Clemson is actually a good team — probably, if you put a gun to my head and made me blurt something out, the third best team in the conference.
I know, I know: This year, that gets you a slap on the ass and an 11 seed. But if the Heels are half as careless as they were yesterday, Clemson (second in the ACC in defensive turnover percentage) will make them pay — and, as against Miami, there are plenty of shooters on the floor for the opponent who will be happy to take those unguarded transition three-pointers. Also, unlike Miami, Clemson can D up, so we can’t count on ugly defensive lapses to let UNC back into the game if it falls behind.
The stat of choice, if you’re Carolina: Six of Clemson’s seven losses in conference were on the road. I’m not sure that means a whole lot, because the Tigers were competitive in all of them — their biggest margins of defeat were 10 at UNC and 11 at Duke — and could easily have picked up a few of those games. But if it does mean anything, the chances of the Coliseum rocking today (especially with a potential WW3 looming against Duke) are high.
The Heels are favored by five. That sounds about right. Expect a barn-burner.
ACC Tournament: North Carolina v. Miami
I know there were, allegedly, four “games” of “Basket Ball” yesterday. But as far as this nerd-in-a-basement is concerned, as far as Dr. James A. MF Naismith is concerned, and, apparently, as far as fans are concerned, the Cocktail Party begins today, in Greensboro.
Can’t be there this year, and despite the ignominy that took place when I attended last year (seriously, Paul Hewitt, get thee to a nunnery), I’m kinda bummed about that. Nothing like waking up on Friday, hitting the early games, cruising down Battleground to the “other” Stamey’s, and rushing back before evening tip. G-burrah. You’re missed. (And no, neither the city nor the Coliseum isn’t to blame for poor attendance. I mean, what’s the alternative, Charlotte? Have you been to Charlotte? The place is a bank with a few bars in the basement. As it was in the beginning, is now and ever shall be, Greensboro without end, amen.)
Anyway. Given that Carolina has never played well at an ACC Tournament game I’ve attended, it’s probably for the best.
A few thoughts on the tournament writ large. Continue reading
Quick Preview: North Carolina at Florida State
You all know what’s at stake: the ACC title, a better NCAA seed, another dose of revenge at the home of All-Time Villain Ryan Reid.
FSU is obviously playing without Chris Singleton, but that doesn’t seem to have made the Tar Heels into serious favorites. Carolina opened as a one-point favorite and, barring any last-minute shifts, will head into tonight’s game favored by 2.5 points.
For what it’s worth, the last time Vegas expected Carolina to have a close game on the road — when they were one-point underdogs heading into Clemson — the Heels won 64-62. Yeah, Kendall Marshall shredded the FSU defense the first time these two teams played … but do you really expect that to happen again? Much more likely is that this game lives up to its billing as a matchup between Pomeroy’s No. 2 (UNC) and No. 4 (FSU) teams in adjusted defensive efficiency. In other words, U-G-L-Y like a Duke cheerleader (and the Vegas over-under, a whopping 138 points, would seem to confirm this).
So get your squeeze toy, or your gin and tonic, or whatever it is that you keep by during close games. Odds are pretty good that you’ll need it.
EDIT: Almost forgot.
Game Preview: Wake Forest at North Carolina
Here’s what you need to know: Wake Forest is ranked No. 255 in Ken Pomeroy’s database.
For comparison’s sake, the teams ranked No. 255 at the end of the previous eight seasons:
- 2002-03: Howard (12-15 overall, 9-9 MEAC)
- 2003-04: Florida A&M (15-17, 10-8 MEAC, won conference tourney & NCAA Tournament play-in game)
- 2004-05: East Tennessee St. (10-19, 4-12 Southern Conference)
- 2005-06: Wofford (11-18, 6-9 SoCon)
- 2006-07: Rider (16-15, 9-9 Metro Athletic)
- 2007-08: Tennessee Martin (17-16, 9-9 Ohio Valley, junior year of future NBA player Lester Hudson)
- 2008-09: Western Michigan (10-21, 7-9 MAC)
- 2009-10: Yale (12-19, 6-8 Ivy)
The previous worst ACC team in the Pomeroy era is 2002-03 Clemson, at No. 117.
In fact, if the season ended today, Wake Forest would be the single worst major-conference team of the Pomeroy era. Worse than the Oregon St. team that went 6-25, 0-19 in the Pac-10, or the Texas A&M team that put up a similar goose egg in the Big 12. Worse than the post-Kelvin Sampson Indiana team. Worse than any of the DePaul teams that have two Big East wins (one regular-season, one tournament) in the past three seasons.
And for what it’s worth, Wake’s vaunted shooter, Gary Clark, is indeed 60% from three … and 47% from two. That sums up Wake’s season as well as any other stat I can muster.
So why do I fully expect this game to be closer than everyone thinks?
A Compendium of Carolina-Duke Videos That May Be Worth Your While
Preview: Florida State at North Carolina
Game time: 2 p.m.
TV: Fox Sports South
Vegas line: UNC-7
Pomeroy line: UNC -9
UNC’s first game since The Betrayal sees Carolina (16-5, 6-1) trying to keep pace at the top of the ACC standings — not just with Duke, mind you, but also with today’s opponent (16-6, 6-2), currently one game behind the Heels in the loss column.
Not much time for a full preview on this Super Bowl Sunday, so I’ll just leave us all with this one thought. You’d think that Kendall Marshall‘s ascendancy to 30-minute-a-game point guard has been dissected in every way imaginable, and you’d be mostly right, but there’s one thing that I haven’t seen anyone mention: On a per-possesssion basis, K-Butter actually turns the ball over more than He Who Shall Not Be Named.
The difference isn’t huge by any means, 33% of possessions for KM versus 29% for LD2. And Kendall’s dime-dropping proclivities mean that he still has a better A/TO ratio on the season (2.4 to 2.2). But against an FSU defense ranked second in the country, Kendall — and Dexter Strickland — are going to have to do a good job taking care of the ball today.
It’s also worth noting that FSU, as good as it is at forcing turnovers, is also stellar at giving the ball up on its own end — though the Heels, whose solid defense centers on inside strength and not fouling, may not be in position to exacerbate FSU’s woes. Expect ugly, with the hope that it turns into a beautiful, beautiful victory.
Game preview: UNC at UAB
Game time:9 p.m.
TV: ESPN
Vegas line: UAB -4.5
Pomeroy line: UAB -4
NIT 4-seed Carolina heads to the Deep South for the second time this week to play NIT 2-seed UAB with a trip to the NIT Final Four (and, thus, a trip to the anti-Deep South) on the line. As you have no doubt heard, Bartow Arena, which seats 8,500 officially but can fit many more than that, promises to be OMG CRAZY. So crazy, in fact, that it will be full of students who think UAB winning would be an upset:
“I’m pretty excited that a top-seated school will be here in Birmingham for the first time, while I’m in school here, so that’s why I’m going to the game,” said UAB student Vashawn Dixon. … “Upset in the making. UAB will upset UNC tomorrow. Trust me, mark my words.”
(I also enjoy how it says “top-seated” instead of “top-seeded.” The quality journalism you can expect from TV.)
Anyway. Quick facts about this year’s version of UAB: They had some mild non-conference hype thanks to a pretty soft schedule, a blowout home win over a not-horrible Georgia team, and a very good home win against Sweet 16-bound Butler. In Conference USA play, they couldn’t get over the hump, going 0-4 against UTEP and Memphis. Their NIT bid is on the strength of their 11-1 against everyone else.
Game preview: UNC at Mississippi State
Game time: Noon
TV: ESPN
Vegas line: Mississippi State -7.5
Pomeroy line: Mississippi State -7
In a lot of ways, Mississippi State is kind of a poor man’s Georgia Tech — inconsistent offensive teams that don’t get the ball inside enough to its best player, ultimately make their mark by playing defense, and can’t beat the A-10 (MSU lost early to Richmond; GT dropped its second game to Dayton).
The difference is that, ultimately, Georgia Tech still gets a good chunk of its points from two; despite Paul Hewitt‘s attempts at not coaching his team, Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors (not to mention Zach Peacock) can only be held down for so long. Mississippi State, meanwhile, has only Jarvis Varnado as a consistent threat inside. The Bulldogs get lot of points from threes — 37.4%, 10th in the country. Deja vu.
But, as in the William & Mary game, threes can also be a team’s undoing.
Yeah, I know, the takeaway from that game was “wow, those kids can really shoot,” but that’s only kinda-sorta true. A lot of Tribe shots went in. A lot more didn’t, and ultimately, that’s why Carolina won the game. (That, and Tyler Zeller not flubbing his big flush. Be honest: As soon as he cocked back for that dunk, you thought it was headed for the ceiling at Carmichael. It’s been that kind of season.)
MSU, despite the huge number of threes they shoot, aren’t much better than William & Mary from beyond the arc, at 35.8% for the season. You’d think they’d try to get the ball in to Varnado more often, what with him being a first-team All-SEC player and all, but he uses only 21.6% of possessions — fewer than sophomore guard Dee Bost and junior forward Kodi Augustus, neither of whom shoots above 45% from two or 37% from three.
Don’t get me wrong. It’s quite possible that some of Mississippi State’s guys get hot, running Carolina off the court. It’s just as possible that the Bulldogs have a pedestrian scoring day. Live by the 3, die by the 3.
At any rate, the larger problem for UNC will almost certainly be scoring points, as it is in every Carolina game that doesn’t involve William & Mary’s church-league defense. You may have heard that today’s opponents do, in fact, play a bit of D. If MSU forced any turnovers at all, they’d be a lethal defensive force. As it is, they don’t (336th in the country in turnover percentage). Unfortunately, that makes them merely “good,” and UNC, against any good defense, has struggled.
Bottom line: Much like UNC was simply the better team against William & Mary, Mississippi State is the better team against UNC. I hope to hell the season doesn’t end today — who doesn’t want another crack at the Wuffies? — but it probably will.
Preview: Carolina at Duke
Watched the ’95 game on ESPN Classic with some buds, working ourselves into the Two Minutes Hate over Wojo and Collins? Check.
Laid out all my ’05 and ’09 national title T-shirts on the bed and then held them tight, one by one, like they were the Precious and I was Gollum? Check.
Took a look at this? Check.
Let’s do this.
Time: 9 p.m.
TV: ESPN
Vegas line: Duke -14.5
Pomeroy line: Duke -18
No, y’all, that’s not a misprint. Vegas really does expect Duke to win by 15 points. Pomeroy really does expect Duke to win by 18 points.
Which, in the end, is probably a healthy thing. Wins in the last two games have, at least in this blogger’s circle of friends, led to some “well, this should be interesting” talk. That’s true — it’s Carolina/Duke, fer godsake — but let’s not subscribe to the illusion that the Heels are suddenly rolling. The road win at Wake was nice, but Wake played miserably, as Wake has played for the better part of a few weeks now. The home win at Miami was, even for this Carolina team, a game that Heels should have won (and almost blew anyway).
You can’t call this game “a game that UNC should win.” Duke is appreciably better than Carolina in every facet of the game. Likewise, you sure as hell can’t expect Duke to play like garbage against its archrival, on Senior Night, trying to stop a four-game home losing streak at Hansbrough Indoor Stadium.
Just sayin’.
Last time out
Duke won the Battle of Inept Offense, 64′-54, in the Dome. Our team’s best player broke his wrist. Let us not speak of it further.
Stuff to watch
All-ACC teams, Geek Edition preview
I am almost certain that when we reveal our all-ACC teams (IT GOES DOWN MONDAY! TELL YOUR FRIENDS! GET HYPE!), one Brian Zoubek will grace the third team. Maybe the second.
This is strange. It is bizarre. We are entering a dimension of sound, a dimension of sight, a dimension of mind. Do you know how many Simpsons-referencing “they’re not saying ‘boo,’ they’re saying ‘Zouuuuuuuuuuu-BEK’” jokes I’ve made these last four years? Reasoning it out is simple, though, and it stems from the fact that rebounding is, while unglamorous, important. Offensive rebounding, in particular, is crucial. Every offensive rebound is a turnover, giving the offense a second chance despite its failure to score.
Guess what? Brian Zoubek, after being merely a decent rebounder for three years, has suddenly tapped into the power of his beard and become the best offensive rebounder in the country. He’s no slouch on the defensive glass, either, ranking 60th in the country in that metric (and second in the ACC, behind our own, gimpy Ed Davis). Based on tweets during the Duke/Maryland game, people are starting to come around to this thought, but Heels Geek is here to, regretfully, inform you that it has been this way all year long. Dude has been a beast on the glass since Day One. If he had even one offensive move, he’d be a legitimate NBA prospect.
(Allow me to take this time to exhale deeply and slowly.)
As the Official Tar Heel Channel points out in its own game preview, one of the big reasons Carolina lost to Duke in the first go-round was offensive rebounding. Duke is, behind Zoubek (and, to a lesser extent, the Plumlees and Lance Thomas), obviously going to pose a huge challenge there. UNC is OK at defensive rebounding — they’re third in the ACC in the percentage of offensive rebounds they give up to opponents — but the Heels have to step it up to have a chance at winning this game.
Turnovers
Not ours. Theirs.
Duke, as we discussed in our “sorry, Duke doesn’t get all the calls” post, is not forcing a huge number of turnovers this year. They rank 4th in the ACC in that metric. Still good, but hardly elite, at least partly by design. They do not pose any special risk to Carolina in that department, and at any rate, UNC would probably turn it over 20 times against East Chapel Hill.
What is worth pointing out, though, is just how good Duke is at taking care of the ball. The Devils turn it over on 16.2 percent of possessions, putting them in the top 10 in the country. Jon Scheyer — and this is something not being discussed nearly enough in his ACC POY candidacy — turns it over on just 12% of the possessions he uses, remarkable for a guy who’s basically the team’s lead guard.
Kyle Singler, by the way, checks in at 14%, Nolan Smith at 13%. Their guards and wings simply do not turn the ball over (though the bigs do). That — more than even the team’s dead-eye three-point shooting — is why Duke ranks so highly in all the computer metrics for offensive efficiency. Even in Duke’s losses, they haven’t coughed it up much; the highest such figure is a turnover on 21.8% of possessions at Georgetown. That is almost exactly the same at Carolina’s average turnover percentage in losses.
The conclusion is that you’re just not going to beat Duke by forcing them to turn the ball over. You make them lose by making them miss shots (or hoping they miss open ones) and keeping them off the offensive glass. It’s not just me saying that, either. Weak offensive rebounding and poor shooting, according to Pomeroy, have been the main factors in Duke’s five losses.
All in all …
I don’t have a nice way of putting this: There is a very good chance Carolina gets its ass whooped.
But then again, it’s Duke/Carolina. Anything can happen. I’ll be rooting right along with the rest of you for anything to happen.
Go to hell, Dook!
