Survive. Advance. The rest is noise.
But a beautiful, joyful noise that gets us arguing. Read on: Continue reading
North Carolina 102, Long Island 87: Everything’s Going to Hell, Unless It Isn’t
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Category Archives: NCAA tournament
Previewing UNC’s Weekend: A Q&A
In lieu of writing long game previews, a series of questions and answers about UNC’s forthcoming weekend of basketball.
Why the RPI Sucks, And Why It Could Mean Disaster for Carolina
In lieu of a North Carolina versus Duke preview — do you guys really need me to break it down? — some vital information about why this game is pivotal to our season.
Recently, Sporting News’ Mike DeCourcy — otherwise, a good college basketball reporter — has been taking to the Twittersphere and to the pages of his publisher’s website in defense of the RPI. And not just in defense of the RPI. He’s also railed against other systems, such as Ken Pomeroy’s.
The thing is, he’s wrong. Like, real wrong. Like, “can’t make a good argument so I set up straw men and knock them down like Shawn Kemp at the Bunny Ranch” wrong.
And Pomeroy has a great article in Slate explaining why. Go ahead, click it, skim through it, then come back and get prepared to be really, really pissed off.
Here’s why this matters for Carolina: In recent days, both Florida State and Clemson dropped below the “RPI top 50″ threshold. Other borderline top-50 opponents, Maryland and Virginia Tech, were already below it. So going into today’s game, UNC is 2-4 against the top 50 in the RPI.
That could spell disaster. At least one major bracket creator (“bracketologist” is not a word) already has us as a four seed, in part, no doubt, because of that less-than-illustrious record.
Except it’s not ACTUALLY a less-than-illustrious record — if you use any system other than “RPI Top 50 wins.”
- UNC’s record against the top 50 in Pomeroy is 9-4 going into today’s game.
- But let’s say you don’t want to use Pomeroy because you’re like DeCourcy and think margin of victory shouldn’t count in making up a ranking system. Well, we can use the Sagarin rankings, which don’t take into account strength of schedule (DeCourcy’s biggest pet peeve with Pomeroy). UNC’s record there? 9-4 against the top 50.
- Carolina’s strength of schedule — compiled from the RPI itself! — is No. 15 in the country. (Compare that with San Diego State, which is competing with UNC for a 2 seed or a 3 seed. SDSU has a 7-2 record against the RPI Top 50, comprising three wins against UNLV, two against Colorado State, one against a Brandon Davies-less BYU, and one against No. 50 Saint Mary’s. But it has a No. 35 strength of schedule.)
Here’s the bottom line. If the committee decides to seed teams based on “how good are they,” I feel good about UNC getting a 2 or a 3 even if they lose to Duke today.
But if the committee decides to use a pointless, arbitrary system that’s been in use since Galaga came out? We could well be looking at a four seed, a dangerous first-round opponent (Belmont, the team Jerry Palm has us playing in the first round, is a nightmare scenario), and a completely unjustified Sweet 16 game against a one seed.
Don’t think today’s game matters? It does.
Beware the Goudelock: Or, Why Carolina Needs to Keep Winning
I don’t know how many of you are familiar with The Bracket Project, but it’s a wonderful resource. Once the bracketology season begins, these fellows (ladies? I don’t even know) put together a consensus bracket, compiled from the work of 66 bubble watchers across the Internet. Some of these folks are more reputable than others, and I wish the Bracket Project people were more discerning — one bracket has Ohio State as a 2 seed, which should be grounds for instant disqualification — but, in all, it’s a useful snapshot of the state of the field.
What does this bracket tell us? Continue reading
Two points on the Tournament
The Pac-10 is not, overnight, a good conference because Cal and Washington won first-round games. Florida State doesn’t have a bad defense because they had an off night against Gonzagoooooooooooooa. The Big East doesn’t suck even though Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, and Georgetown all lost.
I mean, is Green Bay better than Wisconsin, or Oral Roberts better than Missouri, or … not even gonna link this … CofC really better than Carolina?
So that’s point one: It’s just one game. The venue is bigger, the stakes infinitely higher, but it’s just one game.
Point two: Efficiency matters.
- The Pac-10 was never bad because of Cal (#12 in adjusted efficiency) or Washington (#28), both of which sported better efficiency profiles than their first-round opponents. The Pac-10 was bad because of the six teams with efficiency-based rankings of 90 or higher.
- Efficiency numbers suggested that Notre Dame (#40) and Louisville (#43) were over-seeded teams stuck in unfavorable first-round matchups against under-seeded teams (#34 ODU, #12 Cal). They were right.
- Admit that Florida State’s D hardly played to an elite level against Gonzaga. But for what it’s worth, FSU held the Zags to 1.04 points per possession; adjusted for strength of schedule, Gonzaga averages 1.11. Not terrible, even on an off night. The real problem was that the ‘Noles scored 0.94 PPP against a team that’s been indifferent defensively all year.
Stats, in general, can lie. Stats, used improperly, can lie. Stats, used exclusively, can lie.
They can also illuminate.
