Harrison Barnes’ Clutch: By the Numbers

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The this-is-getting-ridiculous, massive stones of one Harrison Barnes have now won the kid his own, Lil B-referencing Tumblr. But I’m a nerd, so I thought I’d run down the numbers real quick and see just how well Harrison shoots under the following conditions:

  • ACC game (this is as decent an estimate as any of when he began to play more confidently, though it sadly excludes the #tigerblood shot against Texas)
  • Under five minutes
  • Game within 10 points

Ran it through twice, double-checked the numbers, and Harrison Barnes — shouldn’t we be calling him the Assassin by now? — is shooting 13/21, 62%, in those situations.

The caveats: Some of these shots were more clutch than others. A dunk against Maryland with the Heels up 9 and two minutes left counts the same, for the purposes of this exercise, as the daggers against FSU and Miami. This is also a tiny, tiny sample size. And it’s safe to say that Barnes’ level of clutch is probably unsustainable going forward — as even Roy Williams says in this profile of Harrison (and his moms!), “He’s going to miss one day.”

‘Course, Roy also goes on to say: ”He’s got a lot of them left in his tank. I know that, and he knows that.”

Oh. You don’t have to tell us, Coach. Barnesbot knows.

Of note

In Which We Wade Into the Brandon Davies Debate

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Later today, we’ll have a number-licious post up about Harrison Barnes and his incredible late-game performances. (Your body ain’t ready for this jelly.)

But right now, I want to talk about BYU player Brandon Davies.

Fair warning: This ain’t much about basketball.

Continue reading →

Quick Preview: North Carolina at Florida State

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You all know what’s at stake: the ACC title, a better NCAA seed, another dose of revenge at the home of All-Time Villain Ryan Reid.

FSU is obviously playing without Chris Singleton, but that doesn’t seem to have made the Tar Heels into serious favorites. Carolina opened as a one-point favorite and, barring any last-minute shifts, will head into tonight’s game favored by 2.5 points.

For what it’s worth, the last time Vegas expected Carolina to have a close game on the road — when they were one-point underdogs heading into Clemson — the Heels won 64-62. Yeah, Kendall Marshall shredded the FSU defense the first time these two teams played … but do you really expect that to happen again? Much more likely is that this game lives up to its billing as a matchup between Pomeroy’s No. 2 (UNC) and No. 4 (FSU) teams in adjusted defensive efficiency. In other words, U-G-L-Y like a Duke cheerleader (and the Vegas over-under, a whopping 138 points, would seem to confirm this).

So get your squeeze toy, or your gin and tonic, or whatever it is that you keep by during close games. Odds are pretty good that you’ll need it.

EDIT: Almost forgot.

The Reggie Bullock Post: Analysis and Idle Speculation

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The injury to Reggie Bullock puts a thin North Carolina team down a player. It also is crap luck for a good kid who’s been through a lot this season, both on the court (getting hurt a few months ago when Roy Williams was ready to put him into the starting lineup) and off the court (dealing with the death of his grandmother).

But if we assume that his performance going forward was going to be similar to his performance over the last month, Carolina is not going to miss the injured Reggie Bullock. Continue reading →

Something That Atlanta Hawks Coach Larry Drew Actually Said

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On the Hawks’ deadline trade that sent Mike Bibby to the Washington Wizards in return for Kirk Hinrich:

“We have been searching for a point guard, someone who can come in and run this club,” Drew said. “I am not saying that Mike didn’t do a good job. There just comes a point with the team where a change has to take place.”

Beware the Goudelock: Or, Why Carolina Needs to Keep Winning

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I don’t know how many of you are familiar with The Bracket Project, but it’s a wonderful resource. Once the bracketology season begins, these fellows (ladies? I don’t even know) put together a consensus bracket, compiled from the work of 66 bubble watchers across the Internet. Some of these folks are more reputable than others, and I wish the Bracket Project people were more discerning — one bracket has Ohio State as a 2 seed, which should be grounds for instant disqualification — but, in all, it’s a useful snapshot of the state of the field.

What does this bracket tell us? Continue reading →

On UNC’s defense: The birth of Bizarro Carolina

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Question to Kendall Marshall: Did you ever think that 48 points would be enough to win a game in the ACC?

KM: Yes. — postgame interviews, 2/19/2011

There is no way to slice or dice this that isn’t ugly: Against Boston College, Carolina let a terrible defensive team completely disrupt its offensive rhythm. It was the Tar Heels’ second-worst offensive performance of the season, this against a BC squad with a defensive efficiency ranked in the 200s nationally.

(Yes, in case you’re curious: second-worst. Carolina hit an 83.2 ORtg vs. BC, which is terrible, but the Georgia Tech game saw them at 77.4, which is beyond the pale. It’s so bad, in fact, that even LAST YEAR’s team had an ORtg less than 77.4 just once: a 66.8 crapfest … in the road game against Georgia Tech. I hate Atlanta.

If you’re wondering how a 48-point game is worse better than a 58-point game, by the way, it’s pace. The GT game was 75 possessions; the BC game, 58. If you think about it, that’s another damning stat. You can’t let teams dictate pace on your home court.)

But the Tar Heels’ defense was stifling. Carolina held BC to an ORtg of 79.7 — easily BC’s worst offensive performance of the season. The Eagles had only been under 90 once, against Florida State.

Here are some more fun facts:

  • BC was the fourth opponent this year to have its worst offensive game of the season vs. UNC. The others: Kentucky, Evansville, and Rutgers.
  • In 16 of Carolina’s 26 games, opponents have had one of their five worst offensive games of the season.
  • The Tar Heels are now up to No. 3 in Pomeroy’s defensive ratings. If that holds, it’ll be Carolina’s best performance in the Pomeroy Era (everything from Matt Doherty‘s last season on), though UNC was No. 5 in 2004-05 and No. 4 in 2006-07.

All of which is to say this: In recent days, there’s been a lot of worrying about the Heels’ shooting woes and their penchant for blowing big leads. Neither is unworthy of concern.

But let’s not forget, while we fret, to remember that winning a basketball game doesn’t mean scoring in the 90s. A superlative defense will put you in a position to win games, no matter how poorly your offense plays.

And this isn’t just some statistical weirdness. These Heels pass — and I hate this phrase, but what else to call it? — the eye test. Their rotations against BC, particularly in the first half, reminded me of the stifling defense that Butler used to slow down Duke in last year’s national title game. In Tyler Zeller and John Henson, they’ve got a superlative one-on-one defender and a freak shotblocker. In Harrison Barnes, they’ve got a guy who’s contributing more and more on the defensive end even as he works through a wonky shot. And in the starting backcourt, we’ve got crafty players who can get after it.

So what you’ve got here is a Roy Williams team that blocks shots, rebounds, rotates well, is regularly winning games in the 60s, and cannot shoot worth a damn. It’s Bizarro Carolina. It’s not what we’re used to. But I’m not gonna argue with 20-6, 10-2 — are you?