In lieu of writing long game previews, a series of questions and answers about UNC’s forthcoming weekend of basketball.
Previewing UNC’s Weekend: A Q&A
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Why the RPI Sucks, And Why It Could Mean Disaster for Carolina
In lieu of a North Carolina versus Duke preview — do you guys really need me to break it down? — some vital information about why this game is pivotal to our season.
Recently, Sporting News’ Mike DeCourcy — otherwise, a good college basketball reporter — has been taking to the Twittersphere and to the pages of his publisher’s website in defense of the RPI. And not just in defense of the RPI. He’s also railed against other systems, such as Ken Pomeroy’s.
The thing is, he’s wrong. Like, real wrong. Like, “can’t make a good argument so I set up straw men and knock them down like Shawn Kemp at the Bunny Ranch” wrong.
And Pomeroy has a great article in Slate explaining why. Go ahead, click it, skim through it, then come back and get prepared to be really, really pissed off.
Here’s why this matters for Carolina: In recent days, both Florida State and Clemson dropped below the “RPI top 50″ threshold. Other borderline top-50 opponents, Maryland and Virginia Tech, were already below it. So going into today’s game, UNC is 2-4 against the top 50 in the RPI.
That could spell disaster. At least one major bracket creator (“bracketologist” is not a word) already has us as a four seed, in part, no doubt, because of that less-than-illustrious record.
Except it’s not ACTUALLY a less-than-illustrious record — if you use any system other than “RPI Top 50 wins.”
- UNC’s record against the top 50 in Pomeroy is 9-4 going into today’s game.
- But let’s say you don’t want to use Pomeroy because you’re like DeCourcy and think margin of victory shouldn’t count in making up a ranking system. Well, we can use the Sagarin rankings, which don’t take into account strength of schedule (DeCourcy’s biggest pet peeve with Pomeroy). UNC’s record there? 9-4 against the top 50.
- Carolina’s strength of schedule — compiled from the RPI itself! — is No. 15 in the country. (Compare that with San Diego State, which is competing with UNC for a 2 seed or a 3 seed. SDSU has a 7-2 record against the RPI Top 50, comprising three wins against UNLV, two against Colorado State, one against a Brandon Davies-less BYU, and one against No. 50 Saint Mary’s. But it has a No. 35 strength of schedule.)
Here’s the bottom line. If the committee decides to seed teams based on “how good are they,” I feel good about UNC getting a 2 or a 3 even if they lose to Duke today.
But if the committee decides to use a pointless, arbitrary system that’s been in use since Galaga came out? We could well be looking at a four seed, a dangerous first-round opponent (Belmont, the team Jerry Palm has us playing in the first round, is a nightmare scenario), and a completely unjustified Sweet 16 game against a one seed.
Don’t think today’s game matters? It does.
ACC Tournament: North Carolina v. Miami
I know there were, allegedly, four “games” of “Basket Ball” yesterday. But as far as this nerd-in-a-basement is concerned, as far as Dr. James A. MF Naismith is concerned, and, apparently, as far as fans are concerned, the Cocktail Party begins today, in Greensboro.
Can’t be there this year, and despite the ignominy that took place when I attended last year (seriously, Paul Hewitt, get thee to a nunnery), I’m kinda bummed about that. Nothing like waking up on Friday, hitting the early games, cruising down Battleground to the “other” Stamey’s, and rushing back before evening tip. G-burrah. You’re missed. (And no, neither the city nor the Coliseum isn’t to blame for poor attendance. I mean, what’s the alternative, Charlotte? Have you been to Charlotte? The place is a bank with a few bars in the basement. As it was in the beginning, is now and ever shall be, Greensboro without end, amen.)
Anyway. Given that Carolina has never played well at an ACC Tournament game I’ve attended, it’s probably for the best.
A few thoughts on the tournament writ large. Continue reading
Quick Preview: North Carolina at Florida State
You all know what’s at stake: the ACC title, a better NCAA seed, another dose of revenge at the home of All-Time Villain Ryan Reid.
FSU is obviously playing without Chris Singleton, but that doesn’t seem to have made the Tar Heels into serious favorites. Carolina opened as a one-point favorite and, barring any last-minute shifts, will head into tonight’s game favored by 2.5 points.
For what it’s worth, the last time Vegas expected Carolina to have a close game on the road — when they were one-point underdogs heading into Clemson — the Heels won 64-62. Yeah, Kendall Marshall shredded the FSU defense the first time these two teams played … but do you really expect that to happen again? Much more likely is that this game lives up to its billing as a matchup between Pomeroy’s No. 2 (UNC) and No. 4 (FSU) teams in adjusted defensive efficiency. In other words, U-G-L-Y like a Duke cheerleader (and the Vegas over-under, a whopping 138 points, would seem to confirm this).
So get your squeeze toy, or your gin and tonic, or whatever it is that you keep by during close games. Odds are pretty good that you’ll need it.
EDIT: Almost forgot.
The Reggie Bullock Post: Analysis and Idle Speculation
The injury to Reggie Bullock puts a thin North Carolina team down a player. It also is crap luck for a good kid who’s been through a lot this season, both on the court (getting hurt a few months ago when Roy Williams was ready to put him into the starting lineup) and off the court (dealing with the death of his grandmother).
But if we assume that his performance going forward was going to be similar to his performance over the last month, Carolina is not going to miss the injured Reggie Bullock. Continue reading
Beware the Goudelock: Or, Why Carolina Needs to Keep Winning
I don’t know how many of you are familiar with The Bracket Project, but it’s a wonderful resource. Once the bracketology season begins, these fellows (ladies? I don’t even know) put together a consensus bracket, compiled from the work of 66 bubble watchers across the Internet. Some of these folks are more reputable than others, and I wish the Bracket Project people were more discerning — one bracket has Ohio State as a 2 seed, which should be grounds for instant disqualification — but, in all, it’s a useful snapshot of the state of the field.
What does this bracket tell us? Continue reading
Game Preview: Wake Forest at North Carolina
Here’s what you need to know: Wake Forest is ranked No. 255 in Ken Pomeroy’s database.
For comparison’s sake, the teams ranked No. 255 at the end of the previous eight seasons:
- 2002-03: Howard (12-15 overall, 9-9 MEAC)
- 2003-04: Florida A&M (15-17, 10-8 MEAC, won conference tourney & NCAA Tournament play-in game)
- 2004-05: East Tennessee St. (10-19, 4-12 Southern Conference)
- 2005-06: Wofford (11-18, 6-9 SoCon)
- 2006-07: Rider (16-15, 9-9 Metro Athletic)
- 2007-08: Tennessee Martin (17-16, 9-9 Ohio Valley, junior year of future NBA player Lester Hudson)
- 2008-09: Western Michigan (10-21, 7-9 MAC)
- 2009-10: Yale (12-19, 6-8 Ivy)
The previous worst ACC team in the Pomeroy era is 2002-03 Clemson, at No. 117.
In fact, if the season ended today, Wake Forest would be the single worst major-conference team of the Pomeroy era. Worse than the Oregon St. team that went 6-25, 0-19 in the Pac-10, or the Texas A&M team that put up a similar goose egg in the Big 12. Worse than the post-Kelvin Sampson Indiana team. Worse than any of the DePaul teams that have two Big East wins (one regular-season, one tournament) in the past three seasons.
And for what it’s worth, Wake’s vaunted shooter, Gary Clark, is indeed 60% from three … and 47% from two. That sums up Wake’s season as well as any other stat I can muster.
So why do I fully expect this game to be closer than everyone thinks?
Preview: Florida State at North Carolina
Game time: 2 p.m.
TV: Fox Sports South
Vegas line: UNC-7
Pomeroy line: UNC -9
UNC’s first game since The Betrayal sees Carolina (16-5, 6-1) trying to keep pace at the top of the ACC standings — not just with Duke, mind you, but also with today’s opponent (16-6, 6-2), currently one game behind the Heels in the loss column.
Not much time for a full preview on this Super Bowl Sunday, so I’ll just leave us all with this one thought. You’d think that Kendall Marshall‘s ascendancy to 30-minute-a-game point guard has been dissected in every way imaginable, and you’d be mostly right, but there’s one thing that I haven’t seen anyone mention: On a per-possesssion basis, K-Butter actually turns the ball over more than He Who Shall Not Be Named.
The difference isn’t huge by any means, 33% of possessions for KM versus 29% for LD2. And Kendall’s dime-dropping proclivities mean that he still has a better A/TO ratio on the season (2.4 to 2.2). But against an FSU defense ranked second in the country, Kendall — and Dexter Strickland — are going to have to do a good job taking care of the ball today.
It’s also worth noting that FSU, as good as it is at forcing turnovers, is also stellar at giving the ball up on its own end — though the Heels, whose solid defense centers on inside strength and not fouling, may not be in position to exacerbate FSU’s woes. Expect ugly, with the hope that it turns into a beautiful, beautiful victory.
How likely is UNC’s basketball streak against Clemson?
A few weeks ago – though that’s eons for Tar Heel hoops, back before The Betrayal, the birth of the Black Falcon, and Biscuits in Beantown – Carolina extended its all-time home record against Clemson to to 55 wins, no losses. Nerve-wracking though it was (lost in the optimism of the last few weeks is that Carolina’s wins against CU and UM could easily have been losses), UNC won.
You know this, of course. But I’m writing about it now because I got to thinking: After The Betrayal, we could probably use some kind of distraction. Some kind of intrigue. Something a little different.
Something like quantifying just how improbable The Streak has been.
Cool? Cool. Let’s do this.
